Biden Vs Trump: Using his '13 Keys to the White House' method, Alan Lichtman has successfully predicted the winner of every US presidential election since 1984. The US presidential election will be held at the end of this year. Against this backdrop, Biden, who is facing the 2024 election, has predicted the chances of victory for Trump. Lichtman said it is too early to determine the likely outcome of the 2024 race between Biden and Trump.
Senior Professor
Alan Lichtman, Distinguished Professor of History at American University in Washington, has been able to correctly predict 9 of the last 10 US presidential elections. While current polls believe President Joe Biden has the lead in the 2024 election, current polls have him trailing Trump by 1.5 percentage points.
13 Keys to the White House method..
Lichtman has been predicting presidential election winners since 1984 using his '13 Keys to the White House' method. Accurate predictions were made 9 times in ten elections. He is known as the Nostradamus of the US presidential election. Lichtman's assessment system measures the strength and performance of the White House party. Lichtman said if Biden loses six of the 13 keys, they will likely lose the election.
What is the '13 Keys to the White House' method?
The '13 Keys to the White House' method measures the strength and performance of the incumbent party to predict the outcome of the US presidential election. Here's a breakdown of the 13 keys.
Party Command: After the midterm elections, the current party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than the current midterm elections.
Nomination Contest: The ruling party has not faced any significant challenge to its nomination.
Power: The sitting president represents the incumbent party.
Third-Party Factor: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign gaining significant traction or support during the election cycle.
Short-term economic stability: The economy does not experience recession in the period leading up to the elections.
Long-term economic growth: Real per capita economic growth matches or exceeds the average growth rate of the previous two presidential terms
Policy Change: The incumbent administration implements significant changes in national policy during its tenure.
Social stability: There is no prolonged social unrest or rebellion during the tenure of the ruling administration.
Scandal-free: The current administration is free from major scandals.
Foreign/Military Mishaps: There have been no significant failures in foreign or military affairs during the current administration.
Foreign/Military Achievements: The current administration achieves significant achievements in foreign or military affairs.
Current Charisma: The candidate of the ruling party has charisma or enjoys the status of a national Hero.
Challenger Appeal: This key is met if the opposing party's candidate lacks charisma or national Hero status.
